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Introduction

Lambda Predict Features Overview

This topic provides a brief overview of the major analysis, data management and reporting capabilities provided by Lambda Predict.

You can also review an introduction to the Synthesis Platform and a list of what's new in the Synthesis version.

Introduction to Lambda Predict

When actual product life data is not available, standards based reliability prediction may be used to evaluate design feasibility, compare design alternatives, trade-off system design factors and track reliability improvement.

Lambda Predict facilitates every step of the standards based reliability prediction analysis process, with user-friendly capabilities designed to make it easy for you to:

The software supports the major reliability prediction standards and also offers integrated utilities for reliability allocation and derating analysis.

All Major Reliability Prediction Standards

Lambda Predict supports the major reliability prediction standards and makes it possible to mix and match components analyzed with different standards when applicable [1].

Depending on your license, the following prediction standards may be available:

MIL-HDBK-217F

Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment (MIL-HDBK-217F), issued by the US Department of Defense in December, 1991. This standard provides reliability prediction models for electronic components in commercial and military applications.

In addition to providing full support for the MIL-217 part stress calculation method, the software also includes a library database with nearly 3,000 components that can be used to quickly create a MIL-217 parts count prediction. This analysis approach may be applicable during bid proposals and early design phases when sufficient information is not available to use other methodologies.

The software supports the connection types specified in the MIL HDBK standard (e.g., Reflow Solder, Spring Contact, etc.) and also allows you to define your own custom connection types, if applicable.

Lambda Predict provides an optional tool (based on a technical report produced by the US Air Force, RADC-TR-85-91) that can be used to separately predict the non-operational failure rates of components or to complement the MIL-217 analysis.

Bellcore/Telcordia – Enhanced in the Synthesis Version

The Bellcore/Telcordia standards (Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment) provide reliability prediction models for electronic components in commercial applications. Lambda Predict supports four versions of the standard, including:

These standards provide a choice of three methods for calculating the steady-state failure rate. Method I (also known as the Black Box method) uses the generic failure rates defined by the Bellcore/Telcordia standards and the pi factors. Method II allows you to supplement the black box calculations with real data that you've obtained from testing, while Method III considers real data obtained from an identical or similar item operating in the field.

FIDES – New in the Synthesis Version

The FIDES Guide 2009 (UTE-C 80811) was updated in 2009 by a consortium of leading French international aeronautical and defense companies, under the supervision of the DGA (Délégation Générale pour l'Armement - French Ministry of Defense). It provides a reliability prediction methodology based on physics of failure, and provides failure rate models for electrical, electronic and electromagnetic components, as well as for commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) board assemblies.

Lambda Predict provides full support for defining different operating phases (life profile) that the components experience, and also guides you through the pi factor assessments recommended by the standard and makes it easy to reuse saved supplier/process evaluations when applicable.

NSWC Mechanical

The Handbook of Reliability Prediction Procedures for Mechanical Equipment (NSWC-07), issued by the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division on July 31, 2007. This standard provides reliability prediction models for mechanical components, such as seals, springs, pumps, valves, brakes and more.

Note: When you open a prediction folio that contains systems that were analyzed with standards not included in your license, you will receive a warning and those systems will not be visible to you (even though they remain in the folio and will be visible to other users who have purchased the required license modules).

Special Features and Analysis Capabilities

Lambda Predict offers several convenient features and analysis capabilities that provide convenience and/or go beyond the basic standards based reliability prediction methods.

External Components: Use an external component to reflect the failure rate for any component that is not addressed in the reliability prediction standard you’re using.

Linked Blocks: Use a linked block to represent the same system or assembly in more than one location within the system hierarchy. When the analysis for the original (source) system/assembly is updated, any linked blocks are updated automatically.

Redundancy: Lambda Predict makes it easy to explore whether you can meet your MTBF/failure rate target by adding redundancy. Simply set the Redundancy property to "true," then define the parallel configuration (e.g., 2 of 3 identical components must be operating) and the mission time at which you want to calculate the failure rate.

Adjustment Factor: Regardless of which prediction standard you are using, Lambda Predict allows you to tweak an item's calculated failure rate by a specified value. For example, if you have reason to believe that the actual failure rate of a component will be half of the rate calculated by the prediction standard, change the adjustment factor from 1 (the default) to 0.5.

Easy Property Updates: The software provides two features that make it easy to update the properties of multiple components simultaneously. The Global Edit feature provides the flexibility to change a variety of properties for any selected components, while the Update Modes feature serves as a quick way to coordinate some of the application and physical properties that might be the same for an entire assembly.

Importing Parts from "Bill of Materials" (BOM) Data Files – Enhanced in the Synthesis Version

Because we understand that importing system configuration data from an external "Bill of Materials" data file can provide a significant head-start for performing a reliability prediction analysis, Lambda Predict makes it easier than ever to import data from Microsoft Excel or delimited text files.

Of course we still provide the flexibility to create and manage templates manually. In the Synthesis version, we’ve also improved the feature that automatically "maps" the information from your file to the data fields that are supported by the software. Either way, you can save time by reusing the same templates for any other data sets that are organized the same way.

The Synthesis version also introduces the ability to use your BOM file to automatically update the properties of components that already exist in the prediction folio and append new data.

Reuse Component Data from Existing Analyses or Libraries – Enhanced in the Synthesis Version

The ability to quickly find and reuse component data from an existing analysis or library can be one of the most powerful benefits of performing your reliability predictions in Lambda Predict. When used correctly, the following features can provide significant time savings and also help to avoid errors by ensuring consistency among your analyses.

Access to Prepared Component Libraries

All Lambda Predict users receive free access to the integrated circuit (IC) component definitions published in MIL-M-38510, the electronic component failure rates published in EPRD-97 (Electronic Parts Reliability Data) and the mechanical, electrical and electromechanical component failure rates published in NPRD-95 (Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data). If you’re working offline, you can access this data from a set of custom libraries that are installed with the software. If you have an active Internet connection, you can search for this data on PartLibraries.org.

In addition, if you want access to more than 300,000 commercial components with reliability prediction parameters predefined based on the published manufacturer spec sheets, you can purchase a yearly subscription to PartLibraries.org that offers unlimited access to the full parts data repository.

Note: Currently, all of the available commercial components are electronic in nature. Therefore, the paid subscription is recommended only for users of MIL-HDBK-217 and/or Bellcore/Telcordia. The part records that are applicable for NSWC Mechanical analyses are available to all Lambda Predict users without subscription.

Reliability Allocation

Lambda Predict's Allocation analysis tool can help you determine the reliability requirements for individual assemblies that would be needed to achieve an overall reliability goal. The available allocation models are:

Derating Analysis

Most equipment failures are precipitated by stress. When the applied stress exceeds the inherent strength of the part, either a serious degradation or a failure will occur. Derating analysis helps with the selection of parts and materials so that the applied stress is less than rated for a specific application.

When you are working with a MIL-217, Bellcore/Telcordia or FIDES prediction, you can select from the available published derating standards or define your own. The software provides visual indicators within the system configuration to show each component’s derating status and also makes it easy to view the derating curves.

The available derating standards are:

Complete Array of Calculated Results – Enhanced in the Synthesis Version

The failure rate, MTBF and other calculated results are displayed directly in the system hierarchy. You can choose which columns will be displayed, and also use the new Highlights feature to use red, yellow and green background colors to make it easy to see how the component’s failure rate contributes to the overall failure calculated for the system or assembly.

You can also use the Pi Factors View to see how the component properties contribute to the pi factors (also called multiplying factors) in the failure rate model, and use the Calculation Information window to see a report of the pi factors and failure rate calculation for any selected component.

Graphical Plots and Charts

Lambda Predict also provides a complete array of plots and charts to demonstrate your analysis graphically. This includes plots for Failure Rate, MTBF, Mission Time and Unreliability (plotted independently and versus Temperature, Environment, Stress, etc.). The Plot Setup gives you full control over the display settings and all plot graphics can be saved as *.jpg, *.gif, *.png or *.wmf files and inserted into other reports and presentations.

You have the option to create plots that present data from more than one system/assembly analysis. The Saved Plots feature also provides the ability to save the plot with the project (including all settings and a direct link to the original data source).

Template-Based Reports - Enhanced in the Synthesis Version

For maximum flexibility, Lambda Predict offers template-based reports to present and disseminate the results of your predictions. A basic report template is provided for each reliability prediction standard that is included with your license. You can customize the appearance of these predefined report templates, and also manage and build your own custom report templates.

Reports can be generated in Microsoft Word and/or Excel.

 

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